On 26 October 2026, a day after Brazil's Superior Electoral Court (TSE) confirmed his re-election, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva reiterated that betting will not return to the country.
The TSE confirmed the result on Sunday, 25 October, with Lula taking about 52% of the vote against about 48% for Flávio Bolsonaro. Yogonet, citing BNL Data, puts the split of valid votes at 51.79% to 48.21%. The absolute margin is not settled: iGamingBusiness reports just over 4.3 million votes, while Yogonet gives approximately 4.4 million.
The ban came through Provisional Measure (MP) 1,394, and it was a central theme of Lula's campaign. He had already said shortly before the second-round vote that betting would not come back. Yogonet dates that statement to a live broadcast on Thursday, 22 October, three days before polling.
Operators' betting licences lost validity on 25 October, when the compliance deadline set by MP 1,394 expired.
Both outlets report that the licences would regain validity only if the measure is overturned or suspended with retroactive, or ex tunc, effect. According to Yogonet alone, the measure was published on 25 September 2026 and gave companies 30 days to comply. The same outlet says 85 authorizations covering 188 brands lapsed and that the fees paid will not be refunded. iGamingBusiness, in figures no other source repeats, reports that operators paid BRL30 million ($6 million) for five-year concessions plus BRL5 million in reserves. It also puts their lost revenue at about BRL1.2 billion and the government's lost tax revenue at over BRL400 million.
The Supreme Federal Court (STF) will settle the measure's constitutionality, and Minister Luiz Fux is the first line of decision on MP 1,394.
None of the 19 injunctions filed by operators and the industry association ANJL was granted, according to Yogonet. It reports that 14 were filed in TRF3 and five in TRF1. It also reports that the president of TRF3 suspended a partial injunction obtained by Stake.
In Congress, MP 1,394 will begin blocking the agenda of the House processing it on 9 November 2026 and will keep doing so until it is voted on. The sources disagree on the next deadline: iGamingBusiness says Congress has until 25 November, while Yogonet says the initial 60-day period ends on 23 November. Yogonet adds that if no vote takes place, the measure would lose validity on 4 March 2027, after the parliamentary recess. iGamingBusiness reports that the joint committee examining the measure has 12 senators and 13 representatives named as full members. According to the same outlet, the committee has no president or rapporteur yet.
iGamingBusiness also reports a signal in Congress that betting sites could return with sports betting only and without online casino.
No date for a decision by Fux has been reported. It has not been reported whether a suspension, if granted, would carry the ex tunc effect that both outlets name as the condition for restoring the licences. A decision by Fux that specifies its temporal effect would settle this.
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